June 2010 Archives

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BP oil spill nearshore trajectory june18 2010


The tragedy in the Gulf continues. By now we’ve all seen the horrendous images of seabirds, fish, dolphins, and other forms of aquatic life - dead or dying, helpless as they slither about covered in oil, an agonizing sight for all the world to see.  We’ve seen the Cajun shrimpers bemoan the loss of their lifestyle, and we are witnessing a slow, lingering devastation - as the sea itself seems to be gasping for breath.

As the spill keeps gushing the questions keep coming:

  • Will Florida be soon deeply affected as well?  
  • Will a hurricane stir up the oil even further?  
  • Will the oil flow around the Florida Keys and wash up on the Eastern seaboard? 
  • When will it end?
  • Will BP pay?
BP is certainly to be held responsible. Some conniving political alliances of the past probably as well. No doubt such a catastrophe could have been avoided if more preventive thinking (North West Blue Quadrant of The Intuitive Compass™) had been involved in the management of this underwater well and if decisions had been made based on sustainable value as opposed to shareholder value. Of course there is nothing wrong with compensating the financial risk of a shareholder or an investor. But the sole focus on financial ROI can easily lead to very unbalanced situations. BP and the oil spill in the Mexican Gulf is one more proof of such limited thinking. The many other global sustainability issues as well.

But rather than focusing on BP as the scapegoat of our anger and sorrows few key facts need to be remembered though in order to draw deeper lessons from the current situation in the Mexican Gulf and bring forth a call for meaningful change. Let’s look at the diagram below.

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Average annual contribution to oil in the ocean (1990-1999) from major sources of petroleum in kilotonnes. 
From Oil In The Sea, Ocean Studies Board and Marine Board of the National Academy of Sciences (2003).

Statistics show that above nearly 85 percent of the 29 million gallons of petroleum that enter North American ocean waters each year as a result of human activities comes from land-based runoff, polluted rivers, airplanes, and small boats and jet skis, while less than 8 percent comes from tanker or pipeline spills.

So what BP’s mistake is revealing is that all our  human operations and our system of wealth creation need to be reconsidered when it comes to oceans preservation. 

Not only BP but most of us in business still base our decisions on a very limited perspective and understanding of progress. By focusing primarily - and at times exclusively even - on the North East Yellow Quadrant and the South East Green Quadrant of The Intuitive Compass™ we essentially destroy the foundations of our existence and upset the fundamentals of life on the altar of logic and linear efficiency.

We leave out our best instrument for adaptive and sustainable decisions: Instinct. Simply put neuroscience has now proved that there is intelligence in our guts and we all know that instinct is responsible for our survival; that is its main function.

So even if our brilliant human logical mind has been able to invent amazing technological and scientific solutions all around it is yet very limited when it comes to shift paradigm and emancipate from its own way of reasoning. Logic only knows what’s logical. This is why in the name of logic one can become totally illogical because logic leaves out the part of life that eludes our logical mind. And as we can all testify from experience: life and logic don’t match! It takes imagination and courage to go beyond logic. To engage in a new path status quo needs to be challenged. It costs more effort, more risk taking, more energy and requires independent and creative thinking.

Today that level of in depth and courageous thinking is required. That level of commitment and determination to change is unavoidable.

The good news is: it is possible!

Muhammad Yunus proved it with microcredit. He challenged the status quo. He claimed that poverty is not a necessity of our system of development. He showed that it can be efficiently dealt with. He imagined and thought out a powerful way of empowering poor people to go beyond their limits. He organized lending money for the poor and showed that poor people can be more reliable that solvent people by traditional standards. He shifted the paradigm of credit and made a huge impact: nearly 8 million individuals are members of Grameen Bank (a total of 40 million people impacted when you count their family members). Since its inception thirty three years ago Grameen Bank has lent more than $ 8 billion US dolllars to the poor in Bangladesh. 

So how does one start an enterprise that reaches nearly 40 million people in one’s own country and improves the lives of tens of millions more in replications around the world? How does one create socially sustainable prosperity?

Through imagination, intense feeling, courage (i.e. rage of the heart), and deep thinking while not being afraid of paradoxes and commending a holistic view of life where all count, paying attention to unusual cues into powerful creative solutions, by humbly accepting that we cannot control life but committing to influence our individual and collective destiny. 

This exact same approach also applies to our relationship with Nature, seas and oceans. This equally applies to business model reinvention and innovation. In other words we can innovate and create prosperous businesses even in recession times and their impact can be positive, meaningful and economically, socially, and environmentally sustainable.

It is time to rethink the way we think… Not from a fragmented paradigm where logic and linear efficiency prevail in an exclusive manner but from a holistic and inclusive paradigm that is both creative and sustainable, intelligent and relevant. This is why Intuitive Intelligence and The Intuitive Compass™ were invented. This is why i do what i do.

There's a post on the HBR blog - Tell Your Gut to Please Shut Up - by Michael Schrage, a research fellow at MIT Sloan School's Center for Digital Business, in which he denounces the current trend about intuition as the key to quick, effective, successful decision-making.

Although Schrage's argument seems to make perfect sense, and his ideas are well articulated, I think this is just another false debate about intuition.

To be intuitive does not necessarily make any one a better decision-maker, as much as having access to a lot of data is in and of itself not enough to make a good decision.

Schrage's view is a common misrepresentation of intuition. 

In reality, intuition is not about being right or wrong. Instead, intuition is a human aptitude that allows us to take in information that is not obvious to the conscious part of our mind that responds to logic. In other words, you may perceive something or feel a certain way about someone or a situation, and this perception and/or feeling may seem very real and yet simply does not make sense from the point of view of logic. But the fact that it does not make sense logically does NOT mean that it does not have any value... far from that, actually.

This phenomenon is often the foundation for many meaningful scientific breakthroughs. It is also the reason for great art, and even successful medical diagnoses!

What do you do in the face of information that does not seem to make any sense yet keeps your attention?

This is when your imagination and your capacity for induction as well as your sense of discrimination, your analytical mind, and your experience are all at once put to test.

Our analytical mind and our instinct work together to make successful choices.

Let's remember that a few years ago research at MIT Picower Center for Memory and Learning showed that parts of our reptilian brain (or instinctual brain) participate in sophisticated decision making: simply put there is intelligence in our gut instinct.

For this to occur, we need a medium to exchange data between the conscious and the non conscious planes of our mind. This is the function of intuition: to inform (not to decide). And this is why Intuitive Intelligence is defined as the ability for our analytical mind and our instinct to function in synergy thanks to our intuition

Now why is Intuitive Intelligence a fundamental concept in business today? And why is intuition an important subject that must be well understood, not misrepresented? Why? Because logic alone cannot bring the level of creativity and reinvention we need to innovate and win in the global economy. Breakthrough ideas can only come from our unconscious mind (otherwise they would not be new ideas!) so we need to access the part of us that is beyond our conscious mind. And what's beyond our conscious mind does not respond to logic!

Every entrepreneur who launched a successful business would tell you that at some point he or she made a critical decision based on gut instinct, because when you create something meaningful that does not have any existing equivalent you will have to rely on your own judgement beyond any logical framework of reference. That's the difficulty of launching a new business. You have to step in the unknown.

So to answer Michael Starge's question at the end of his HBR article: "So did I write that based on empirical observation? Or because I'm trusting my gut?

My answer is loud and clear: hopefully, both! Otherwise - with all due respect - "that" runs a high risk of being just another platitude.
Not long ago, at the airport, I had a conversation with John - a business man in his early 40s. 

Since I consult in the highly-challenged paper media industry I asked him how he feels about reading magazines and papers.

I assist a major firm identify the fundamentals of the media of the future, facilitate a culture of innovation and accelerate the reinvention of their business model. For those of you less familiar with the challenges of this industry in the US  let me tell you what they are in this digital age:

- increasingly, online destinations attract the attention of large audiences
- most paper magazines have a hard time retaining their audience
- advertising dollars shrink as a consequence
- media company try desperately to expand revenues on the web repurposing a somewhat irrelevant editorial legacy

So let's come back to my conversation with my fellow traveler at the airport. He's a best selling author, considered as a thought-leader in his field of expertise. To respect his privacy, I'll keep his name and further details about his profession confidential.

He tells me that he has not spent a dollar on a newspaper or a magazine for months, probably years!

So I asked him to share with me his reasons for this. He tells me that he already has access to more information than he could read: he receives the
NY Times online newsletter everyday, as well as the Economist weekly; he checks the news on Google and the Daily Beast. Three times a week, he watches CNN at the gym for 45 min. as he runs on the treadmill. He browses the web constantly.

Overall, he prefers e-newsletters over online subscriptions because of time constraints - with a subscription he has to wait for the entire digital edition to download on his screen, but with an e-newsletter is only one click away from the information. Time is of essence for him and much more important than the marginal information he can only have via electronic subscriptions or paper versions.

Besides, he flies internationally very regularly and enjoys access to more magazines and newspapers - both US and international - than he could wish for.
He tells me that he prefers electronic information because he can save articles and send them easily to his clients or his assistant.  Simply put,
he does not need to buy any general information - a pretty gloomy statement for traditional media owners!

But further into the conversation, I find out that
he pays $150 to receive the McKinsey Quarterly. For $150 he can get a yearly online subscription with Newsweek and receive in the mail GQ, Car and Driver, and FT everyday!

So, where's the solution?

As always, the solution will not come from a financial equation alone - there is no imagination in 2+2 = 4 - yet most traditional business thinking comes back to : "what's the business model?" meaning "how do we make money?"

These questions are obviously necessary questions but they're also paralyzing! That's the conventional north-east quadrant approach in the Intuitive Compass™.

The appropriate questions are:
"how do i bring value to my readers?" and "what is my reader trying to achieve?"

Let's go back to the roots.
What does "media" mean? It means "in the middle" - media stands between people and information and facilitates news and information sharing.

If we come back to my conversation it's not difficult to see how to bring value to John, i.e to stand between John and a world of information in a way that's relevant and significant! He needs:

- cutting edge information to keep ahead of the curve in his business
- quick access and very easy repurposing of information
- a search engine that is customized to his very specific profile (profession, cultural background, revenue, age, lifestyle, consumption preferences, payment modalities, hometown and preferred destinations, travel patterns, etc.)

The media would help him thrive if they could deliver a customized version of their online magazine everyday with information that speaks to him, his lifestyle and saves him time.

it would not take much more content development from the media because in actual facts a lot of this information is already available online and for this he would be willing to pay obviously since we know he pays for the 
McKinsey Quarterly.

Two other essential complements would bring real added value to John's experience. One, is
advertising: what if John could switch on and off access to customized advertising on his page? We let John decide when he wants to see an ad - tough, you'll say! ... how do you sell this to an advertiser?
Well actually, this is what Google does basically - we're simply pushing it one step further. John has control of his exposure to advertising in the same way as people decide if/when they want to sit in the sun. It would mean a pay-per-click type of revenue or even pay-per-lead. But John's perception of the media would be so enhanced - it would clearly raise drastically his loyalty to this medium

The other?
User-generated content. He tells me he's looking for a new car; he's considering buying a Porsche Cayman or Boxster. He prefers the line of the Cayman, but living in LA, he thinks a convertible would be really cool, so he's debating between the two.

He tells me he goes online to find info about the cars. John says he'd like to know how
green these cars are and how much it actually costs to drive and maintain them. Here are his three choices:

- the official Porsche website
- car magazines such as Car and Driver or Road and Track
- blogs and users generated reviews

The first two don't really answer these questions in a straightforward way.

Car magazines usually write about the new features of the car and in a style that's supposed to be appealing to the largest audience, while the Porsche website gives data that don't match up with real life.

But when it comes to users' reviews it's not easy either:  John has to go through a lot of shallow comments and irrelevant information before he can access what he needs: mpg data, maintenance cost, etc.

So what about a media company that develops a system to collect user-generated content and sort it out and find a way to establish a hierarchy so that shallow comments go to the end of the list and relevant serious information comes to the top?

This is something John would really value. It would save him time and give him access to real conversations with like-minded people who own and drive the cars he's considering. And this could be done on all other topics John would tell his media company he would like to hear about.

So why not including in the
media of tomorrow a way to curate content?  To feed readers with user-generated content filtered and organized in a way that's relevant to the profile and aspirations of each readers.

This is typically a north-west quadrant / south-east quadrant type of approach grounded in the
south-west quadrant: open creative thinking applied to improve performance based first and foremost on consumer value creation.

So the media still has a critical role to play.  There's still a lot to do and a lot of potential to enhance the media industry for both readers and magazines.

But please don't start your internal conversations talking about
how you're going to make money; it will not take you very far! Start thinking about value and meaning to reach deeper long lasting creative solutions that will eventually lead to profit without a doubt.  
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